Optimal MLB Baseball Strategies and Systems to Beat Your Bookie
Did you know that baseball is one of the toughest sports to turn a long-term profit on? What makes MLB baseball so tough to beat is the ever-increasing statistical information available to both bookmakers and professional betting syndicates which has led to sharper lines. Fortunately, baseball bettors can utilize a number of baseball betting systems and strategies which can lead to more consistent profit.Fenway Park home of the Boston Red Sox
5 Best Baseball Betting Systems and Strategies that work
Fade the public and keep clear of the big moneyline favorites
Simply put, big favorites in baseball do not yield a long-term profit due to the fact that they get hammered at the betting windows by novice bettors which keeps the line artificially inflated, which is especially true when a big name pitcher is on the mound.
An example of this would be LA Dodgers’ pitcher Clayton Kershaw, who is a big time name in a big time market and when he is on the mound the money flows heavily in on the Dodgers forcing the bookies to move the line more and more in their favor and erasing any potential value they would have had.
The obvious con of fading big-time favorites is that they win the game at a high clip which will, in turn, increase your overall variance as a baseball bettor, with the main pro being that you are not falling into the trap of the ‘’obvious plays’’ or ‘’sure things’’ that have been statistically proven to be bad bets.
Always keep an eye on the weather when betting totals
Especially when betting totals we have to keep an eye on the weather because the baseball will carry differently in different weather situations which can lead a lot of fly balls to become home runs. When the weather is hotter the ball will carry further (2.5 ft for every 10 degree increase to be exact), so when the weather gets warm in the dog days of summer it can be a profitable MLB baseball betting strategy to look to the overs. Another thing that needs to be accounted for is the wind, with winds blowing out we can expect the ball to carry even further compared to when there is either no wind or if it is blowing in towards home plate.
One of the best examples of this comes from the 2021 Toronto Blue Jays season, as they were unable to play in their home stadium, the Rogers Center, until July. They instead had to play in Dunedin Florida where it was much hotter than most other places in April and that made Blue Jays home games hit the over at a higher rate than would normally be expected for them in the first month of the season.
Betting underdogs in the first couple months of the season
At the start of the MLB season you will find that the bookmaker’s lines will not be as sharp as they are towards the end of the season, as there are still big question marks about all of the teams coming into the season. Those unanswered questions mean that there are often opportunities to play the underdogs at much bigger prices than you can get at the end of the season. This is especially true about big market teams coming off of a great season, as they will be vastly overvalued in the markets with no guarantee they will be able to replicate their success.
A prime example of this in 2021 is the Minnesota Twins who made the playoffs in 2020, but were unable to hold that level of performance finishing towards the bottom of the AL Central. The Twins were vastly overvalued early on, as the bookies were trying to figure out just how good this team was going to be, and those poor odds would have led to great value on the teams they were playing against early in the season.
This strategy can lead to consistent profits and get your MLB betting season off on the right foot, but it is always important to remember that you will increase your variance by betting on underdogs. That can make it tough to stick with this betting strategy, but it is a solid and statistically based way to make money early on in the season.
Backing the underdogs during divisional play
This can be a very advantageous strategy, as we know that games within the division are more tightly contested affairs compared to those outside the division. This is because all these teams within a particular division know each other very well and are often fierce rivals with each other. This can open up a betting opportunity on the underdogs in these games, as they are priced like any normal game when they are anything but normal to the players or the fans.
A good example of this would be the American League East which is almost always a tightly contested division and this year is no different. There are 4 teams with winning records in the division, with these teams having great successes outside of divisional play with none of them being able to really pull away from the pack due to the tough games they face within the division.
This can be a tough system to follow, as you have to throw some statistical analysis out of the window, as the game completely changes when we are dealing with games inside the division. That can make it tough to make it through losing streaks that are sure to come with underdog betting, but at the end of the day it is one of the best ways to bet on baseball and come out with a profit.
Handicapping the umpires when looking at totals betting
Each individual umpire will have a different strike zone which we can study and handicap to determine whether or not he gives more strikes or balls. Batting averages change drastically based on what the count is, so this is an efficient way of handicapping totals by first understanding the tendencies of that night’s umpire.
One great example is Angel Hernandez, who very much likes to call batters out on strikes and therefore has an expanded strike zone. In games where he is the umpire the under hit more often than not and so this can be a powerful tool which can help us make more money when betting on MLB baseball.
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3 Baseball Betting Strategies that do not work
The Series Betting System
The series betting system says that we should be picking a team that we like and betting on them in the first game and then go on to continue doubling our bet when we lose the first game. This is simply a martingale system that will yield no long-term profit because the times that your team gets swept you simply lose too much.
Handicapping Ballpark Factors
Unlike the weather which is a constantly changing variable, the ballpark factors are not going to change on a day-to-day basis and therefore they are well accounted for in the oddsmakers’ lines. The bookies know that the ball is going to fly in Coors Field due to the heightened elevation, so it is always being accounted for as a constant and so we cannot find any additional edges by handicapping these factors.
Betting heavy favorites and going for the ‘’sure thing’’
MLB baseball is in a unique position to many other sports, as anything can happen on any day and that makes it one of the worst sports to bet on the ‘’sure thing’’. Yes, heavy favorites will often come out victorious, but not enough to make out for the poor odds you get when they win. This seems like an obvious point, but many people still fall into this trap thinking things like ‘’Max Scherzer is just too good to lose’’ when that is simply not the case.
3 Quick Tips for more Consistent Profit on MLB Baseball
- Bankroll management is key to turning a long-term profit in any betting endeavour, but that is especially true about MLB baseball, as it is a sport you need to stick with over the long-term, as you go through winning and losing stretches. In order to come out ahead we need to be smart with our bankroll and bet sizes and that is why it makes it to number one on our list.
- Avoid parlay bets when looking at turning a long-term profit on MLB baseball, as it has been statistically shown to be a poor betting option not only in baseball but in all sports. Focus on making calculated total, runline, and moneyline bets and avoid the temptation of the big score.
- Follow the news closely before first pitch, as many things can change from the starting pitcher to the batting lineup. Being on top of any breaking news allows you to get bets placed quickly based on what is happening and that can help build an additional edge into your bets.
Frequently Asked Questions
Many baseball betting systems are flawed, as they are already accounted for in the bookmakers odds. The key to making money on baseball betting is incorporating a multitude of strategies in order to gain an edge over the bookies.
There really are no safe betting strategies, as they all include variance to some degree even when backing the big favorites. The way to achieve a safe betting strategy is through proper bankroll management to ensure that even when you do go on a poor run of form your bankroll is not wiped out in the process.
Luckily for us just about every bookmaker in the world accepts bets on the MLB, so it has never been easier to get a bet on your favorite team!
Action is an important term when you are placing a bet on MLB baseball, as an action bet means that your wager will stand even if the starting pitcher changes with the opposite being true for a non-action bet
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As you can see, baseball betting is filled with plenty of solid strategies to help build your edge, but also comes with plenty of pitfalls which too many novice bettors fall into. Fortunately, MLB baseball is a very beatable sport which can show long-term profits if the correct strategies are implemented. Look out for underdogs in divisional games, follow a sound bankroll management strategy, and don’t fall into the many traps like martingale systems or ballpark factors and you will be ahead of 90% of the betting field and be in a prime position to make some serious profit with your baseball bets.